2024 is expected to mark a significant milestone for global air travel. It is expected to surpass the number of passengers in 2019, reaching 9.4 billion (102.5% of the 2019 level). The upcoming summer in the northern hemisphere will see increases in air traffic from the usual holiday season and the Olympic games in Paris in July 2024.
During the summer season, the aviation industry faces various threats, particularly for air operators, air traffic management, airports, and ground handlers. These threats increase the risk of potential undesired outcomes, which need to be managed effectively to ensure the uninterrupted provision of air transport services.
The last IATA safety issue review meeting was a great opportunity for operators to discuss the most common threats driven by increased demand and weather-related challenges.
Weather-related issues
High temperatures
- Aircraft/Engine performance degradation. Leading to an increase in take-off distance and a reduction in climb rate. As a result, payload capacity or range may be reduced.
- Brakes, bleed system, and electronic equipment overheating. This might increase MEL reports and cockpit workload. Spare parts planning and availability may be required to maintain aircraft airworthiness.
- Human performance degradation. High temperatures may cause front-line staff working outdoors on the ramp to deviate from SOPs and weaken safety controls. Operators should assess how operating in high temperatures may impact individuals' ability to carry out safety-critical tasks.
- Health risks to passengers. Extremely high cabin temperatures can lead to heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and dehydration and exacerbate existing health issues.
Convective activity
- Turbulence. Encounters with turbulence may increase due to the increased convective activity in the atmosphere.
- Windshear / Microburst. Can produce sudden changes in aircraft airspeed and lift, potentially leading to a loss of control in flight.
Flooding
- Runway contamination. Runway contamination remains a year-round safety issue. However, extreme summer weather events may increase standing water on runways, reducing braking action and increasing hydroplaning conditions that may lead to runway excursions. Operators should continuously monitor runway state and ensure flight crew remain competent in interpreting reporting conditions and using the Global Reporting Format (GRF).
Wildlife Migration
- Bird activity. From April to June in the northern hemisphere, bird migration increases the presence of wildlife in surrounding airfields, raising the likelihood of bird strikes during takeoff, climb approach, and landing. Operators should review the risk of bird strikes at departure/destination airfields that are in the vicinity of migration routes and collaborate with aerodromes to ensure effective wildlife management programs are in place.
Demand-increased issues
- Operational pressure: This may create a sense of urgency and subsequent stress for frontline staff, who must meet ‘on-time’ performance due to slot restrictions and busy schedules. Operational staff may be pressured to take shortcuts to save time, thereby deviating from procedures.
- Flight crew pairings: Some flight crew pairings, such as newly upgraded captains with inexperienced first officers, may threaten to overcome high operational demands. Operator scheduling teams should actively plan to manage such pairings.
- Carriage of lithium batteries: with high load factors on aircraft, hand luggage may need to be taken from passengers at the gate and placed in the hold. Operators should ensure due consideration is given to dangerous goods requirements such that lithium batteries in hand luggage are not being placed in the hold.
- Shortage of qualified personnel training standards: The challenge of recruiting enough staff to match increased seasonal demand could strain training resources. Operators should commence recruitment as early as possible, ensuring new colleagues are trained and operational in anticipation of increased demand.
- Congested airports: increased activity on the ramp to service aircraft can create greater congestion, increasing the risk of ground safety events such as collisions between ground service vehicles and aircraft.
- Unruly (disruptive) passengers. During the summer season, with a higher volume of flights, there may be a corresponding increase in the number of unruly passengers onboard aircraft and within airport terminals. As part of their SMS, operators should assess which routes may have a higher exposure
. Operators are encouraged to collaborate with regulators to raise awareness of unruly passengers.
Call to Action – Industry
- Review the above safety issues for exposure and consider undertaking safety risk assessments.
- Providing strong safety leadership creates an environment where individuals are not pressured to take shortcuts, preventing the normalization of deviance from standard operating procedures.
- Reinforce safety performance monitoring through incident reporting programs, FDM, and other available mechanisms.
- Reinforce safety culture and safety risk awareness among the front-line staff, emphasizing the operator safety priorities and the importance of reporting near misses.
Call to Action – IATA
- Continue to review and assess seasonable safety issues (both summer and winter), making available related guidance material and safety publications available via the Safety Issue Hub.
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