SkyNRG: Policy Developments and the Influence on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production

SkyNRG is a global leader in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Since 2009, the company has been scaling up SAF demand and production capacity for the industry to meet its 2050 net zero commitment. SkyNRG was the first in the world to supply SAF on a commercial flight.

According to SkyNRG’s Market Outlook report, forecasted SAF production capacity could reach 17.3 Mt (5.7 Bgal) by 2030, representing an increase of +4.0 Mt (1.3 Bgal) since the analysis conducted last year. Steep further growth of SAF capacity is needed beyond 2030 in order to reach the increasing EU mandates and ambitions for SAF implementation globally.  

The SAF landscape until 2030

Several policy developments are driving SAF demand and expanding the regulatory market on a global scale. Some key policy highlights include:

European Union: ReFuelEU Aviation is a scheme which mandates EU fuel suppliers to supply a 6% blend of SAF to EU airports by 2030.

United Kingdom: The UK SAF mandate will start in 2025 at 2% jet fuel consumption and increase to 10% by 2030.

United States: Through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the US has a SAF production target of 3 Bgal (9.1 Mt) in 2030.

Currently, few SAF facilities are operational or under construction. Delays are frequent, primarily due to financing and feedstock availability challenges. There is mounting pressure in this sphere as we must start developing capacity now to reach the 2035 target. This will require almost three times the amount of SAF compared to the 2030 EU target.  

What to expect post 2030

Post 2030, other technologies such as e-SAF and advanced bio-based SAF will need to be scaled with the limited scalability of Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) feedstocks. However, SkyNRG’s Market Outlook highlights that there are currently few advanced bio-based and e-SAF projects in later development stages. We see several hurdles that limit the rapid progress of advanced (e)SAF projects in the market:

1. Technologies are still in development with pre-commercial Technology Readiness Level (TRL), creating potential technology risk when raising project finance.
2. Biomass feedstock collection is complex due to relatively low conversion yields and bulkiness of feedstock sources. This bulkiness makes them hard to collect and difficult to store.
3. Innovative green hydrogen projects are still expensive, causing hesitancy to invest. These are essential in the e-SAF pathways necessary to comply with the e-SAF sub-target from 2030 onwards.

Despite these challenges, the adoption of advanced bio and e-SAF will be key to meeting targets post 2030. Significant investments will be needed to scale innovative pathways and build capacity beyond 2030.

Urgent supportive policies are needed from the Government to upscale SAF production

Planned production of SAF depends on the necessary supportive policies from government coming into legislation over the next six years and beyond. There is already growing demand from airlines and corporates to invest in the use of SAF. However, they are unsustainable in the long run, due to the high price of SAF compared to conventional jet fuel. Supportive policies from governments can help to bring down the cost of SAF production and help grow this demand. 

SkyNRG seeks to make the transition smoother by connecting corporate commitments with airline ambitions and providing easy access to SAF.

Helena Mitchell
Creative Marketer, SkyNRG